Is the Bitcoin Bull Back?
Posted on July 24 2018
Hello, fellow crypto enthusiasts and investors! So with the nice surge higher that we have seen in Bitcoin over the last 10 days, I just thought I would once again publish a chart showing what I believe are important steps Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to keep up the bullish momentum (Listed below, they are also on the chart). I actually started writing this blog post and created the chart on the 17th but never posted it. So what I am going to do is include the original chart with my thoughts from the 17th and also include an updated chart showing the progress BTC has made along with my thoughts today.
Even though Bitcoin has been looking very impressive lately which has helped pull some of the other coins and tokens higher as well, there also have been some that are lagging behind. In the table below which shows the performance over the last 12 days, you can see that Ethereum, Ripple, and Litecoin have really lagged behind. It is possible that these three will make up ground on the others in the near future but we will just have to wait and see how that plays out.
So Bitcoin has made an impressive move higher over the last 10 days or so with some pretty good volume but is this really the start of a sustained long-term recovery or just another temporary bounce higher? If I really knew the answer to that I would either be buying all of theBitcoin I could get or shorting the shit out of it! Unfortunately, I don't know the answer and will just have to watch the price action for any clues that it may provide moving forward.
As I have said many times recently, I am very bullish on cryptos long-term but feel that this boom and correction cycle that cryptos are working through may have quite a while to go yet. So, I am not yet convinced that the double bottom we saw between $5700 and $5800 was actually the real bottom or just a short-term bottom. Believe me, nothing would make me happier than to see Bitcoin and all the other cryptos skyrocket higher from here, however, I am trying to be patient and not get my hopes up every time there is a large move higher.
Below are the important steps I wrote on the 17th that I believe Bitcoin needs to accomplish in order to keep the bullish momentum.
Important Steps for Bitcoin
1) Pushing above and staying above the 100 SMA (daily time frame)
2) Breaking through the Pink downtrend trend line
3) Pushing above and staying above the 200 SMA (daily time frame)
4) Push above and stay above $10,000
So as of me writing this on the 24th Bitcoin has completed the first two steps and is currently sitting at just over $8400. It has been a very impressive move with Bitcoin gaining over 9% just today.
Here is the updated chart showing Bitcoins progress since the 17th.
As you can see Bitcoin has not only pushed above the daily 100 SMA but has also broken above the pink downtrend trend line. My feeling though is that even though this has been a very impressive move higher the next $1600 in gains is not going to come so easy.
Here is a zoomed in view showing a little more detail of where BTC is today.
As you can see BTC is now approaching the daily 200 SMA (step #3) which most likely will act as resistance. I also see a pretty good amount of resistance in the $8700 to $9200 area (red band), and if that wasn't enough BTC then has to try to top $10,000 (step #4) which I believe may prove to be a very difficult task. One event that is on the horizon and that I believe is very important for BTC to continue its march higher is the decision the SEC is scheduled to make on August 16th regarding the application for a Bitcoin ETF made by the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange). A favorable decision by the SEC would make this the first Bitcoin ETF ever approved by the SEC and would undoubtedly bring in a flood of new investment into Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in general. It is very possible that Bitcoin may be very close to the important $10,000 level when the SEC announces their decision which could either propel Bitcoin well past $10,000 or cause it to pull back depending on which way the decision goes.
Either way, as I said I remain very bullish long-term on cryptocurrencies and I believe that even if the SEC does not approve the CBOE Bitcoin ETF it would only be a temporary set back. I am really looking forward to the coming months/years as I believe we are still in the very early days of this new technology/movement with many more positive milestones ahead.
I hope you enjoyed this blog post and until the next blog post.
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